2013

Not in My Backyard: Understanding Local Opposition to Undocumented Immigration Using a National Survey Experiment- Author: Jason Anastasopoulos Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Author: Jason Anastasopoulos

Abstract: Understanding what motivates animus toward undocumented immigrants presents several empirical challenges.  Estimates of undocumented immigrants at the state and metropolitan area level are unreliable, rendering studies which base conclusions on them questionable at best. Furthermore, because undocumented immigrants mostly come from Latin American countries, assessing the role that undocumented immigrant characteristics such as race or ethnic background...
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Consumer Demand and Welfare Estimation in a Heterogeneous Population- Presenter: Stefan Hoderlein Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Presenter: Stefan Hoderlein 

Abstract: This is an overview about own recent econometric work related to the modeling of heterogeneity in applied consumer demand models. The focus will be on non-parametric random coefficient models. The main application will come from estimating gasoline demand; in particular, estimating the distribution of welfare effects of a 5% gasoline price change.

...
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Surrogate Measures and Consistent Surrogates- Presenter: Tyler VanderWeele Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Presenter: Tyler VanderWeele 

Abstract: Surrogates which allow one to predict the effect of the treatment on an outcome from the effect of the treatment on the surrogate are of interest when it is difficult or expensive to measure the primary outcome. There have, however, been several instances of drugs that have been approved for use on the grounds of randomized trials using surrogate outcomes, that have subsequently led to public health catastrophes, costing thousands of lives. It is now clear that the use of surrogates can...

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Scalable Analysis of Conflict Behavior & Decision-Making- Presenter: Amy Sliva Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Presenter: Amy Sliva 

Abstract: The ability to model, forecast, and understand the behavioral dynamics and decision-making patterns of human agents has applications in many contexts. One particularly salient domain is the field of international security where artificial intelligence models can be leveraged to analyze complex and uncertain security situations. Real world datasets can contain 10^30,000 possible behaviors—requiring efficient techniques to manage the confluence of cultural, social, economic, political, and...

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Cathy O'Neil on Wall St and Occupy Wall Street- Presenter: Cathy O'Neil Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Presenter: Cathy O'Neil

Abstract: In this talk I will discuss the common problems data nerds face when they work in industry. Those include problems that academic statisticians face, of course, but also extend to other kinds of communication and political problems. Moreover, considering the cultural effects of widespread mathematical modeling, the general inaccessibility of mathematical models from the point of the view of the public, and the general blind trust the average person has in mathematics, it's potentially a pretty big deal. Let...

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Identification and Estimation of Causal Mediation Effects with Treatment Noncompliance - Presenter: Teppei Yamamoto Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Presenter: Teppei Yamamoto

Abstract: Treatment noncompliance is a common problem in program evaluation. The problem is particularly severe when the analyst is interested in causal mediation effects. This is because, somewhat counterintuitively, the mediated portion of an intention-to-treat (ITT) effect cannot be nonparametrically identified even when treatment assignment is randomized and the ignorability of the observed mediator is assumed. This paper shows that, once the standard instrumental variables assumptions are made, the mediated...

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Party Cohesion in Westminster Systems: Inducements, Replacement and Discipline in the House of Commons, 1836--1910- Presenter: Arthur Spirling Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Presenter: Arthur Spirling 

Abstract: We consider the historical development of a characteristic crucial for the functioning and normative appeal of Westminster systems: cohesive legislative parties. To do this, we gather the universe of the twenty thousand parliamentary divisions that took place between 1836 and 1910 in the British House of Commons, construct a voting record for every Member of Parliament serving during this time, and carry out analysis that aims to both describe and explain the development...

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Growing a Pattern From a Seed- Presenter: Cynthia Rudin Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Presenter: Cynthia Rudin 

Abstract: I will describe two methods and applications for pattern detection, where patterns are grown from a seed of a few items:

1) Growing a List: The next generation of search engines should not simply retrieve URLs, but should aim at retrieving information. We designed a system that leads into this next generation, leveraging information from across the Internet to grow an authoritative list on almost any topic, starting from a seed.

2) Crime Series Detection: In joint work with the...

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Between the ordinal and the interval: Educational score scales and the "scale-dependence" of analytic results- Presenter: Andrew Ho Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Presenter: Andrew Ho 

Abstract: At some point early in our quantitative training, we learn the difference between ordinal scales and interval scales. There is a clear distinction. Ordinal scales, such as rankings, contain only information about order (1st place, 2nd place, 3rd place). Interval scales, such as time and temperature, have equal intervals between successive scale points (1 degree Celsius, 2 degrees Celsius, 3 degrees Celsius). We learn that these differences matter, because the vast majority of statistical analyses, from...

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Deterministic and Stochastic Counterfactuals, Interference Between Treatments, Causal Interactions, Bell's Inequality in Quantum Mechanics, and The Nature of Reality- Presenter: James Robins Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Presenter: James Robins 

Abstract: Neyman introduced a formal mathematical theory of counterfactual causation that now has become standard language in many quantitative disciplines, but not in physics. We use results on causal interaction and interference between treatments (derived under the Neyman theory) to give a simple new proof of a well-known result in quantum physics, namely, Bell's inequality.

Now the predictions of quantum mechanics and the results of experiment both violate Bell's inequality....

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