March 5, 2012DUE: 8:00am Sunday, Mar. 11READING: Review UPM Ch. 5 Even Count Models; Read either King and Zeng "Improving Forecasts of State Failure" OR King and Zeng "The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals", all in NBVIDEO: Grouped Uncorrelated Random Variables (20:20) and Duration Models: Exponential (17:38)