Dan Hopkins on the (non-)Bradley/Wilder Effect

Dan Hopkins, an IQSS post-doctoral fellow, is getting a lot of press lately for his paper on the vanishing Bradley effect (aka Wilder effect) -- whereby pre-election polls favor black candidates more than electorates. His results indicate that this effect has vanished and he predicts it will have little or no effect in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election. If you missed all the articles in the mainstream media, see this Science Magazine article. But more interesting is his paper on the subject, "No Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female Candidates", which is easily the most extensive and definitive study of its kind; you can find a copy here.

Posted by Gary King at October 21, 2008 10:14 AM