May 2007

Predicting no-shows for airline travel

The New York Times has an interesting article today on airlines overbooking flights. Apparently the number of people bumped off flights (voluntarily and involuntarily) has risen over the past years despite efforts to model no-shows.

The article mentions US Airways' team of ``math nerds'' who are trying to figure out how many seats the airline can sell without bumping off too many people. One interesting aspect is that they seem unable to do a great job at predicting the number of no-shows for a...

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Disclosing clinical trials

The New York Times has an article today ("For Drug Makers, a Downside to Full Disclosure") discussing the recent creation of archives for pharmecutical clinical trial data, including data from trials that did not result in publications. This effort is an attempt to deal with the age old problem of publication bias, a problem supposedly identified by the ancient Greeks, as described in a letter to the editor of Lancet by Mark Pettigrew:

The writings of Francis Bacon (...
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Statistics and the law

Over at the Volokh Conspiracy, Professor Elmer Elhauge from Harvard Law School has a post about the future of empirical legal studies, comparing the law today to baseball before the rise of sabermetrics. From the post:

In short, in law, we are currently still largely in the position of the baseball scouts lampooned so effectively in Moneyball for their reliance on traditional beliefs that had no empirical foundation. But all this is changing. At Harvard Law School, as traditional a place as you can get, we now...
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Does Multiple Imputation Make Up Data?

This is a common question, commonly misunderstood. It certainly does seem like MI makes up data, since if you look at the 5 or so imputed data sets, the missing values are indeed filled in. But in fact, the point of MI has nothing to do with making up data, and everything to do merely with putting the data in a more convenient format.

The fact is that the vast majority of our statistical techniques require rectangular data sets, and so data that look like swiss cheese make it really hard to do anything sensible with directly. Listwise deletion, where you excise horizontal...

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Gosnell Prize nominations

And while we're doing announcements, the Society for Political Methodology is also soliciting nominations for the Gosnell Prize, awarded to the best paper in methods presented at any political science conference:

The Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology is awarded for the best work in political methodology presented at any political science conference during the preceding year, 1 June 2006-31 May 2007.

The Award Committee also includes Michael Crespin and Patrick Brandt.

We look forward to submissions for this important award in the next few...

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Surveying Multiethnic America

The Program on Survey Research at Harvard is hosting an afternoon conference tomorrow on the challenges of surveying multiethnic populations:

Surveying Multiethnic America

May 11, 2007
12:30 – 5:00

Institute for Quantitative Social Science
CGIS N-050
1737 Cambridge St.
Cambridge, MA 02138

Across a variety of different academic disciplines, scholars are interested in topics related to multiethnic populations, and sample surveys are one of the primary means of studying these populations. Surveys of...

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Political Methodology Career Award - Call for Nominations

Simon Jackman sent around the following today on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology:


The Society for Political Methodology will award its first Political Methodology Career Award this year, to recognize an outstanding career of intellectual accomplishment and service to the profession in the Political Methodology field. The award committee -- Simon Jackman (chair), Elisabeth Gerber, Marco Steenbergen, Mike Alvarez -- is calling for nominations for this award, due no later than Monday May 28, 2007. Nominations...
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What's your optimal GPA?

Amy Perfors

This may not be new to anybody but me, but recent news at UNC brought the so-called "Achievement Index" to my attention. The Achievement Index is a way of calculating GPA that takes into account not only how well one performs in a class, but also how hard the class is relative to others in the institution. It was first suggested by Valen Johnson, a professor of statistics at Duke University, in a paper in Statistical Science titled "An Alternative to Traditional GPA for Evaluating Student...

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Data for Replications

We have blogged a fair bit about reproducibility standards and data-sharing for replication (see here and here). Some journals require authors to make datasets and codes available for a while already, and now these policies start to show effects. For example the American Economic Review requires authors to submit their data since 2004, and this information is now available on their...

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