Mahlon Reihman -- Human Devestation?

1. Is mankind on a track towards self-destruction?


Explanation: Through global warming, nuclear threats, overpopulation, and fossil fuel dry-ups, it is no surprise to most people that there is fear and uncertainty towards the future. We live in a scary period of time where the threat of nuclear armageddon is actually feasible, and we can contribute to the health and wellbeing of our world through our personal actions. A pressing question of our time is simply knowing how much longer our advanced species can live on Earth before we destroy it for ourselves.


2.      Seeking the answer to my previously stated question is certainly an ongoing effort and goal among scientists from multiple fields. Scientists who attempt to predict long term effects of global warming work to create effective models to summarize their findings and beliefs. These scientists often draw from historical data and patterns to create accurate models. This field is often prone to criticism because of the sheer difficulty of their task. Essentially, these scientists are tasked with showing people something that they truly don’t want to believe in a way that is both informative and helpful. This way of thinking is relatively new in the spectrum of human existence. The rise of environmental consciousness was not discovered until the early 1900s, and actual action didn’t begin taking place until much later on (1960s).


        The question of reliability often comes up when analyzing climate change models. 

People who seek predictive answers to the afore stated question are forced to analyze and estimate trends rather than events. To analyze uncertainty and accuracy in these models, people can always reevaluate old predictions when they reach the time they are trying to predict, such as looking at graphs made in  2010 when we reach the year 2030. While not always entirely accurate, these models can give a great guess to what we can expect in both the near and distant future.


The topic of human crowding also becomes more pressing by the minute. Our population sits at around 7.5 billion people, and is on the rise. Some people predict that based on our current rate of change, it will take about 200 years for our population to double. This may not be an issue that will affect our generation , but it certainly will have repercussions in years to come. This prediction, unlike the climate change models, are likely to be more accurate. By analyzing population growth rates dating back hundreds of years, scientists are able to piece together a relatively accurate model predicting how growth will develop in the next few hundred years.