Will the incidence of disease continue to decrease in the future or will it increase? Oyewole

1. Will the incidence of disease continue to decrease in the future or will it increase? With the formation of superbugs it seems like the diseases that we have worked so hard to eradicate are coming back stronger than ever before.  The tools we had to stop them are becoming less effective. In addition, people are starting to become wary of modern medicine and don't think it is really necessary. How will this affect the spread of potentially more dangerous versions of the diseases we thought we had gotten rid of.

2. A person trying to find the answer to this questions is probably going to look at the different types of diseases and how they spread. They will look at how diseases that spread through food and water will be affected by current socio-economic changes in world where people are slowly but surely getting richer. They will also look at diseases spread by bugs and see how they will increase in incidence due to the spreading geographic scope of many bugs that carry diseases.  Another thing to consider will be the increasing amount of superbugs and how they will affect the developed population due to the fact that some of our most powerful tools for keeping healthy will no longer be effective. They will also need to acount for how degenerative diseases will increase with people living longer and longer. By looking at the differnt types of diseases that are around, they will need to look for how all cumulative effects of all these different contributors to global health.

A preson seeking to answer this question would also want to know about the physical connections between different parts of the world. It is now so easy to go from one place to another and in the future it is only going to get easier. This can be a problem when it comes to diseases because if a disease has a long incubation time, the carrier could pass it to a whole lot of other people in the world before they even knew they were sick. This could cause a relatively isolated disease to become a pandemic. 

In addition, it is imporant to know about the rate at which diseases evolve. A newly evolved strain of the flu could be exceptionally dangerous and become an epidemic or pandemic. We have seen this happen with the Spanish, Bird and Swine flus. They all started off not so bad, then they evolved and passed to humans and became terrible blights on society. This is something that needs to be taken into account so that the model can be more  effective.

In all reality, this model is exceptionally large and can in no way be wholly accurate unless the person who createds it is actually psychic. They are too many things to take into account that could affect the way global health progresses and each prediction would have a limited amount of time during which it would be a trustworthy model until something large changes in the world This model would have alot of uncertainty and would rely very heavily on statistic and statistical modelling to come up with an apt description.