2022

Dean Knox presents "Optimal Allocation of Data-Collection Resources" (with Guilherme Duarte) Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Complications in applied work often prevent researchers from obtaining unique point estimates of target quantities using cheaply available data—at best, ranges of possibilities, or sharp bounds, can be reported. To make progress, researchers frequently collect more information by (1) re-cleaning existing datasets, (2) gathering secondary datasets, or (3) pursuing entirely new designs. Common examples include manually correcting missingness, recontacting attrited units, validating proxies with ground-truth data, finding new instrumental variables, and conducting follow-up experiments....

Read more about Dean Knox presents "Optimal Allocation of Data-Collection Resources" (with Guilherme Duarte)
Michela Carlana presents "Revealing Stereotypes: Evidence from Immigrants in Schools" Wednesday, April 19, 2023
We study how people change their behavior after learning they are biased. Teachers in Italian schools give lower grades to immigrant students relative to natives with comparable ability. In two experiments, we reveal to teachers their own bias, measured by an Implicit Association Test (IAT). Randomizing the timing of disclosure, we find that learning one’s IAT before deciding end-of-term grades reduces the native-immigrant gap in grades. IAT disclosure and generic debiasing have similar average effects, but there is heterogeneity: teachers with more negative stereotypes do not respond to... Read more about Michela Carlana presents "Revealing Stereotypes: Evidence from Immigrants in Schools"
Naoki Egami presents "Empirical Strategies Toward External Validity: Framework and External Robustness" Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Over the last few decades, social scientists have developed and applied a host of statistical methods to make valid causal inferences, known as the credibility revolution. This trend has primarily focused on internal validity — researchers aim to unbiasedly estimate causal effects within a study. However, one of the most important long-standing methodological debates is about external validity — how scientists can generalize causal findings beyond a specific study. This question of external validity has a long history in the social sciences, going...

Read more about Naoki Egami presents "Empirical Strategies Toward External Validity: Framework and External Robustness"
Fredrik Sävje presents "A Design-Based Riesz Representation Framework for Randomized Experiments" Wednesday, April 5, 2023
We describe a new design-based framework for drawing causal inference in randomized experiments. Causal effects in the framework are defined as linear functionals evaluated at potential outcome functions. Knowledge and assumptions about the potential outcome functions are encoded as function spaces. This makes the framework expressive, allowing experimenters to formulate and investigate a wide range of causal questions. We describe a class of estimators for estimands defined using the framework and investigate their properties. The construction of the estimators is based on the Riesz... Read more about Fredrik Sävje presents "A Design-Based Riesz Representation Framework for Randomized Experiments"
James M. Robins presents "Target Trials and Structural Nested Models: Emulating RCTs using Observational Longitudinal Data" Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Target trials are RCTs one would like to conduct but cannot for ethical, financial, and/or logistical reasons. Consequently, we must emulate such trials from observational data.  A novel aspect of target trial methodology is that, for purposes of data analysis, each subject in the observational study is ‘enrolled’ in all target trials for which the subject is eligible, instead of a single trial. I will describe recent theoretical results connecting target trial methodology and structural nested models. I will discuss a novel inferential conundrum that arises from this connection. Finally... Read more about James M. Robins presents "Target Trials and Structural Nested Models: Emulating RCTs using Observational Longitudinal Data"
Carlos Velasco Rivera presents "On-Platform Experimental Research on Facebook and Instagram in the 2020 Election" Wednesday, March 22, 2023
We will discuss a groundbreaking collaboration among over two dozen independent (that is, not paid by Meta) academics and a team of Meta researchers. Since early 2020, this group has worked together to evaluate the role of Facebook and Instagram in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The collaboration has, as of now, resulted in over a dozen pre-registered (observational and experimental) designs for academic research papers. In this presentation, we will focus on the experimental interventions that were designed to test the causal impact of Facebook and Instagram on all of the project’s key... Read more about Carlos Velasco Rivera presents "On-Platform Experimental Research on Facebook and Instagram in the 2020 Election"
Cory McCartan presents "Estimating Racial Disparities when Race is Not Observed" Wednesday, March 8, 2023
The estimation of racial disparities in health care, financial services, voting, and other contexts is often hampered by the lack of individual-level racial information in administrative records. In many cases, the law prohibits the collection of such information to prevent direct racial discrimination. As a result, many analysts have adopted Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which combines individual names and addresses with the Census data to predict race. Although BISG tends to produce well-calibrated racial predictions, its residuals are often correlated with the outcomes of... Read more about Cory McCartan presents "Estimating Racial Disparities when Race is Not Observed"
Laura A. Hatfield presents "Adaptive metrics for an evolving pandemic" Wednesday, March 1, 2023
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have proposed risk metrics, such as the CDC Community Levels, to guide local and state decision-making. However, risk metrics have not reliably predicted key outcomes and often lack transparency in terms of prioritization of false positive versus false negative signals. They have also struggled to maintain relevance over time due to slow and infrequent updates. I this talk, I will highlight recent work that makes two key contributions to address these weaknesses of risk metrics. I first present a framework to evaluate predictive accuracy based on... Read more about Laura A. Hatfield presents "Adaptive metrics for an evolving pandemic"
Molly Offer-Westort presents "Adaptive experimental designs for policy learning and evaluation, with applications to Facebook Messenger studies" Wednesday, February 22, 2023

When running multi-arm trials, experimenters may wish to both learn and evaluate data-driven policies; for example, learning which version of treatment is most effective and evaluating the effect of that treatment in comparison to a control condition. Response adaptive algorithms, which dynamically update treatment assignment mechanisms based on observed response, facilitate experimental designs where the most data is collected about the most effective interventions, and can improve policy learning over conventional randomized trials. I discuss design decisions when running adaptive...

Read more about Molly Offer-Westort presents "Adaptive experimental designs for policy learning and evaluation, with applications to Facebook Messenger studies"
David Ham presents "Design-Based Confidence Sequences for Anytime-valid Causal Inference" Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Many organizations run thousands of randomized experiments, or A/B tests, to statistically quantify and detect the impact of product changes. Analysts take these results to augment decision-making around deployment and investment opportunities, making the time it takes to detect an effect a key priority. Often, these experiments are conducted on customers arriving sequentially; however, the analysis is only performed at the end of the study. This is undesirable because strong effects can be detected before the end of the study, which is especially relevant for risk mitigation when the...

Read more about David Ham presents "Design-Based Confidence Sequences for Anytime-valid Causal Inference"

Pages